Industrial Roundwood Demand Projections to 2050: A brief review of the literature

 

 

Rebecca U. Weiner & David G. Victor[1]

 

 

A key consideration in the development of a plausible and attractive vision of the future of the world’s forests is the projected demand for forest products.  This paper reviews existing demand projections, offers a very brief analysis, and suggests a plausible level of demand in the year 2050.  It is a contribution to the Council on Foreign Relations “Great Restoration” study, which seeks to develop a plausible and attractive vision for the world forest estate in 2050. 

 

Canvassing broadly for studies, the paper includes 30 sets of projections from 13 sources.  Most of the projections extend to the year 2010; 1 study (IIED 1996) extends to 2045 and 3 studies (11 projections) extend to 2050.  Unless otherwise noted, historical baseline data is taken from FAOSTAT online database (FAO Statistical Database, 1999).

 

Roundwood consumption is differentiated from roundwood production for short term studies whereas the two are conflated for long-term studies.  Regional variations, changes in inventory and the like allow for a discrepancy between production and consumption over the short term, whereas over the long-term it is realistic to expect that the market will clear.

 

In a few cases, studies have provided multiple scenarios that control for variation in projected population, economic growth rates, price, demand/supply interaction, and tastes that could affect demand.

 

The studies included are for total world industrial roundwood, undistinguished between dimension lumber and pulp.  Non-industrial woods such as fuelwood are not included.  Demand is measured in millions of cubic meters (CUM) per year.  For studies that report both supply and demand, this paper discusses only the demand estimates.

 

Table 1 and Figure 1 summarize the projections.

 

 

Brief Analysis:

 

Variation in base year and historical data is small and thus is unlikely to account for much of the difference in projected demand.  Instead, the variance in demand projections is a function of different assumptions such as future income, population, substitution of wood and pulp by non-wood products, and prices.

 

As expected, variance among the projections for each year increases as the projections reach farther and farther into the future.  For instance, there is a difference of 309 million CUM between high and low studies of 1995, and there is a difference of 368 million CUM between high and low studies of 2000.  There is a difference of 580 million CUM between high and low projections for 2010.  In 2050 the difference is 1190 million CUM.  However, compared with 2010, the variation in 2050 demand projections may be artificially low and does not necessarily reflect a robust consensus on demand levels after 2010.  The 2010 estimates reflect extensive use of sensitivity analysis by several analytical groups.  The seven projections for 2050, however, are the result of only three groups: one projection is unpublished (World Bank/WWF Alliance Target Workshop) another six are scenarios from a single group (Solberg et al., 1996), and the other four are scenarios from another single study (Sohngen et al, 1999).

 

From 1970 to 1995 demand for industrial roundwood, has been rising steadily at about .7% per year. The few available long-term projections suggest that the rate of growth will slow after 2010 and that demand may flatten by 2050.   For the entire set of projections the average annual rate of growth from 1990 to 2050 is 1%.  Average growth from 1995 to 2010 is 1.3%, and average growth from 2010 to 2050 is .5%.

 

Average consumption is 1865 million CUM in 2010 and 2553 million CUM in 2050.  2050 projections range from approximately 2000 to 3000 million CUM.  These projections are consistent with the assumption used in the “Great Restoration” project that demand will be approximately 2500 million CUM in 2050.

 

 

References

 

Brooks et al, 1997, cited in FAO, 1997, XI World Forestry Congress. Volume 4, Topic 21, Part 1. Food & Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO): Antalya, Turkey, 13-22 October.

 

Brown, Christopher, Gary Bull and Adrian Whiteman, 1999, Forest Product Market Developments. Working Paper FAO/FPIRS/02. Food & Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO): Rome.

 

FAO Committee on Forestry, 1999, 14^th Session. Food & Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO): Rome, March 1-5.

 

FAO 1995, cited in FAO, 1997, XI World Forestry Congress. Volume 4, Topic 21, Part 1. Food & Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO): Antalya, Turkey, 13-22 October.

 

FAO, 1997, XI World Forestry Congress. Volume 4, Topic 21, Part 1. Food & Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO): Antalya, Turkey, 13-22 October.

 

FAO, 1998, Global Forest Products Consumption, Production, and Prices: Global Forest Products Model Projections to 2010. Working Paper GFPOS/WP/01. Food & Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO): Rome.

 

FAO, 1999, State of the World’s Forests 1999. Food & Agriculture Organization of the United Nations: Rome.

 

FAOSTAT, 1999, Food & Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Statistical Database. <http://apps.fao.org/> (visited 3 December 1999).

 

IIASA GTM, 1998, cited in Sedjo, Roger A. and Kenneth S. Lyon, 1990, The Long-Term Adequacy of World Timber Supply. Resources for the Future (RFF): Washington.

 

IIED, 1996, Towards  a Sustainable Paper Cycle. International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED): London.

 

ITTO, 1999, Global Timber Supply Outlook. International Tropical Timber Organization (ITTO). http://www.metla.fi/archive/forest/1996/07/msg00111.html.

 

Jaako Poyry, 1995, cited in FAO, 1997, XI World Forestry Congress. Volume 4, Topic 21, Part 1. Food & Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO): Antalya, Turkey, 13-22 October.

 

Nilsson, Sten 1996, cited in FAO 1995, cited in FAO, 1997, XI World Forestry Congress. Volume 4, Topic 21, Part 1. Food & Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO): Antalya, Turkey, 13-22 October.

 

Nilsson, Sten, 1996, Do We Have Enough Forests?, IUFRO Occasional Paper No. 5. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA): Austria, February 1.

 

RFF TSM, 1998, cited in Sedjo, Roger A. and Kenneth S. Lyon, 1990, The Long-Term Adequacy of World Timber Supply. Resources for the Future (RFF): Washington.

 

Sedjo, Roger A. and Kenneth S. Lyon, 1990, The Long-Term Adequacy of World Timber Supply. Resources for the Future (RFF): Washington.

 

Sohngen, Brent, Robert Mendelsohn, and Roger Sedjo, 1999. "Forest Management, Conservation, and Global Timber Markets," American Journal of Agricultural Economics 81 (February).

 

Solberg, B, D. Brooks, H. Pajuoja, T.J. Peck, P. A. Wardle, 1996, Long-Term Trends and Prospects in World Supply and Demand for Wood and Implications for Sustainable Forest Management. Research Report 6. European Forest Institute (EFI): Joensuu, Finland.

 

Wood Resources International, Ltd (WRI), 1998, “The Global Timber Supply/Demand Balance to 2030: Has the Equation Changed?”

 

World Bank/WWF Alliance, 1999, Forest Management Target Workshop. [Unpublished Study].

Table 1:  Summary of Projections

 

 

Study	mid-1990s	2000	2010	2020	2050
Apsey & Reed (1995)		1790	1940	2250
Brooks et al (1997) scenario #1		1730	1840
Brooks et al (1997) scenario #2		1780	1980
Brown et al. (1999)	1493		1881
FAO (1995)		1900	2280
FAO (1999)			1872
FAO Ctte on Forestry (1999)	1490		1872
FAO XI World Congress (1997)	1475	1627	1784
FAOSTAT (1999)	1513
IIASA GTM		1800
IIED (1996)	1784	1878	2046	2177
ITTO (1999)		1995	2166	2260
Jaako Poyry (1995)		1500	1700
Nilsson (1996)			2100	2400
Nilsson (1996), non-mainstream		1730	1890
RFF TSM--base case		1700
RFF TSM--high demand		1800
Sedjo & Lyon (1995)		1810	1970
Sohngen et al (1999) high demand					2500
Sohngen et al (1999) low access cost					2200
Sohngen et al (1999) baseline					2100
Sohngen et al (1999) low plantation					2000
Solberg et al (1996) scenario 1		1730	1840	1870	1880
Solberg et al (1996) scenario 2		1730	1860	1910	1970
Solberg et al (1996) scenario 3		1780	1980	2120	2450
Solberg et al (1996) scenario 4		1780	2000	2150	2570
Solberg et al (1996) scenario 5		1810	2080	2290	2930
Solberg et al (1996) scenario 6		1810	2090	2330	3070
World Bank/WWF Alliance, 1999	1500				3000
Wood Resources Int'l (1998)			1907	2251