Global Vision 2050 for Forestry M. Bazett
World Bank/WWF Project January, 2000
Long-Term Changes in the Location and
Structure of Forest Industries
1.0 INTRODUCTION
The World Bank/WWF Alliance, in concert with the
Council on Foreign Relations is exploring the hypothesis that more efficient
use and increased productivity of forest resources could, by 2050, ensure that
most of the world’s needs for industrial forests products could be derived from
a comparatively small proportion of intensively managed global forests.
This background paper
examines the structural evolution of the global forest industry, with
particular reference to the key factors likely to affect the long-term spatial
distribution. The paper is based on an
initial search of relevant literature. The scope is necessarily broad, and in
the interest of brevity, the material presented is very much of an overview
nature. Virtually all of the topics
covered merit in-depth analysis.
2.0 HISTORIC OVERVIEW
2.1 Introduction
The utilization of forest
resources has a very long history, and as Mather (1990) has noted, most of the
problems faced in the 20th century are not new. The management, use and control of forests;
the shrinkage of forest resources; scarcity (real or perceived) of wood supply;
and ecological damage such as floods and soil erosion have all been subjects of
debate and concern for centuries.
Indeed, Britain experienced timber shortages in the 17th
century; nearly every European country has learned that complete denudation of forest
cover without reforestation has profoundly negative social and economic
consequences; and as recently as 1920 the United States was consuming almost
five times the annual growth of its forests (Cox et al 1985). In Mather’s words, “we can in fact learn
from the past”.
2.2 Evolutionary phases
and transitions
The utilization of wood and
the exploitation of the world’s forest resources can be broadly characterized
by three sequential phases that flow from the basic evolution of man from “hunter-gatherer” to farmer. The shift from one phase to the next is
accompanied by a transitional period.
The importance of these transitions is highlighted by Mather who
suggests that the major problems of forest resource use occur at times of
transition. The phases are
differentiated by the nature and diversity of goods and services sought from
the forest, the importance given to wood production as a management goal and
the legitimacy given by the public to differing approaches to forest
management.
In the initial or
pre-industrial phase, forests are perceived to be an unlimited resource, both
for the wood itself and for the land, which can be converted to farming. There is no obvious need for conservation or
management, and in consequence, the resource-base declines. The industrialization phase typically begins
with an unexploited old-growth forest.
Wood is “mined” and as forest regions are depleted, the exploitation
moves further afield, resulting in spatial shifts of the industry. Harvest levels exceed growth, and timber
inventories decline. However, harvests
that exceed growth, declining inventories and deforestation do not necessarily
lead to unsustainability (Vincent and Binkley 1990). Where an effective stumpage market operates, rising prices
provide an incentive for increased timber growth and more efficient processing,
which together tend to be self-correcting, at least in terms of market values.
Rising prices indicate
scarcity, and can in turn trigger moves to resource conservation as the nature
of wood harvesting shifts from extensive exploitation to varying degrees of
intensive forest management. Sedjo
(1993) noted that the world is still largely dependent on natural, old-growth
forests rather than “farmed” or managed forests. While this is less true in parts of Europe where managed and
planted forests have long been the norm, it is, in Sedjo’s view, only a matter
of time before the transitional stage is reached globally. That said, it should also be noted that
there is alack of uniformity globally, most particularly between developed and
developing regions and even within countries.
Mather (1993) suggests that
the transition from a reliance on old-growth forests to more intensively
managed forest or plantations is “one clear feature of the present
century”. This transition has been
driven in Europe by a slowing down of population growth and increasing food
crop yields (hence less need for agricultural land) and the substitution of
wood as a fuel source by electricity and petroleum products. These factors, coupled with changing values
and perceptions of the forest lead to what Mather (1993) describes as the
“post-industrial forest.” He points out
that this term is not synonymous with “multiple use” but rather it relates to
popular perceptions and expectations of planted forests in both private and
public ownership.
Mather contends that the
shift to the post-industrial forest will be reflected in differential growth
patterns and a “southward adjustment” in wood production and processing.
2.3 Two basic models
The history of Forest
resource exploitation and development in the Mediterranean Basin and in North
America provides two basic models which can be applied at least in general
terms to most regions of the world. Mather (1990) outlines these histories in
some detail and they are summarized in the paragraphs following.
2.3.1 The Mediterranean
Basin
The Mediterranean experience,
beginning with classical Rome and Greece, is largely negative. Forest utilization featured destructive
exploitation on a massive scale, driven by the fuelwood and grazing/farmland
requirements of an increasing population.
Despite such pressures, some of the forest remained, due mainly to a
combination of technical (coppicing, sewing, planting and thinning techniques
were applied centuries ago) and organizational ability. In the 19th
century, the introduction of the railway provided access to previously
unexploited forests. Further
deforestation occurred, facilitated by weak institutions and a lack of
control. Although there has been a
partial transition to conservation and improved utilization efficiency, Mather
notes that the Mediterranean forest resource model “does not bode well for the
future of the forest world”. He notes that
it also provides a model that has been followed by much of the developing world
in the second half of the 20th century.
2.3.2 The United States
Following the pre-industrial
period, the period from the 17th to the 19th century was
marked by a rapid depletion of the original forest cover, with fuelwood
harvesting and then clearing for agriculture being the primary causes. The forests seemed vast and
inexhaustible. As one area was
exhausted, timber extraction moved on from New England, to the Lake States, the
South and finally, the Pacific Northwest. By the 1870s, the removal rates were
so high that extrapolation indicated the distinct possibility of a timber
famine by the 20th century.
By the turn of the century there was a realization that the forests were
finite and unlike the Mediterranean experience strong political initiatives
were taken to correct the situation.
This resulted in a spectacular reversal, which was greatly aided by
fundamental changes in the nature and magnitude of wood demand. Fuelwood was largely replaced with other
forms of energy, and there was a major reduction in the volume of timber
required for railway construction.
Although sustained yield
principles were applied to the management of virgin forests, there was an
inevitable transitional time lag between the cutting of the old-growth and the
time when the new forests would become operative.
2.4 Assessment
The differing histories of
the two regions underscores the need for appropriate forest management policies
and practices, underpinned by cooperation between government and industry; an
efficient and transparent stumpage pricing system; and strong control measures
to avoid excessive and unsustainable exploitation. While the message from the Mediterranean case is bleak, the United
States experience demonstrates that even after severe exploitation, a forest
resource can be recovered if timely corrective action is taken. It is noteworthy however that the transition
from destructive exploitation to a more balanced resource management system
required a century to complete.
3.0 GLOBAL FORESTRY IN THE 1990’S: AN OVERVIEW
3.1
Distribution of forest resources and industrial roundwood production
Of the total global forest
cover of about 4 billion ha, some 2.8 billion ha are classified as “closed
forests”. Of this total about 2.2
billion ha are estimated to be of potential as commercial forests. (World Bank
1988).
Forest areas are divided in
approximately equal areas between tropical and temperate zones and between
industrialized and developing countries.
Forests of the developing countries are 90% non-coniferous whereas the
forests of industrialized countries are mainly conifers.
In 1997, world production of
roundwood totaled 3.4 billion m³. Of
this, fuelwood and charcoal accounted for 56 percent. The balance of 1.5 billion m³ was used for industrial purposes.
Of the total production of
industrial roundwood (IRW), two thirds consisted of conifer species, and
one-third non-conifers.
In the global context, there
is poor correlation between the existence of major forested areas and the
production of IRW. As Sedjo (1990) has
noted, “most of the world’s forests are not important industrial wood
suppliers”. About two-thirds of the
total resource is located in North America, Latin America and the area of the
former USSR. This concentration is even
more pronounced for conifer species, which account for 40% of the total forest
area. About 80% of the world’s conifer
resources are located in North America and the former USSR. Although non-conifer forests are more
broadly distributed, the primary concentrations are in the southern hemisphere,
with Latin America alone having more than 40% of the total.
3.2 IRW production
Unlike the distribution of
the global forest resource, the pattern of IRW production is heavily skewed to
the industrialized countries of the northern temperate zone, which produce
about 80% of the global total (Table 1).
Furthermore, this share is heavily concentrated in North America (40%)
and Europe (25%).
Table
1. Industrial roundwood production
(million m³)
|
Region |
1970 |
1980 |
1990 |
1998 |
|
%/yr 1970-1990 |
|
Africa |
40 |
51 |
58 |
69 |
2.2 |
1.2 |
|
North/Central America |
439 |
489 |
594 |
618 |
1.2 |
1.5 |
|
South America |
39 |
86 |
110 |
130 |
4.4 |
5.3 |
|
Asia |
172 |
233 |
262 |
262 |
1.5 |
2.1 |
|
Oceania |
20 |
28 |
33 |
41 |
2.6 |
3.7 |
|
Europe |
268 |
282 |
339 |
296 |
0.3 |
1.2 |
|
Former USSR |
299 |
278 |
305 |
116 |
(3.3) |
0.1 |
|
World Total |
1,277 |
1,447 |
1,701 |
1,532 |
0.6 |
1.4 |
Source: FAO Data
The production of IRW has
increased steadily for most of the post war period. Since 1961, when global
data were first compiled, production has increased by 50% from about 1.0
billion m³ to 1.5 billion m³ in 1998.
Production reached a peak of 1.7 billion m³ in 1990, reflecting an
annual growth rate of 1.8%. In 1991,
world production declined to about 1.5 billion m³and has remained at that level
throughout the decade. This
discontinuity is primarily due to the economic dislocation of the former
USSR. Whereas production levels
averaged about 300 million m³ during the 1980s, a severe downturn occurred in
1992 and production levels in subsequent years have only been about one-third
of those recorded in the preceding decade.
The region’s share has fallen from 18 percent of the world total in 1990
to about 6 percent at present.
Sixty percent of IRW
production is in the form of saw and veneer logs. The balance consists of pulpwood (30%) and poles and posts
(10%).
3.3 Consumption
Developed countries, with
only 25% of the worlds’ population, currently consume about 75% of the IRW
produced globally.
North America, with 39
percent of total consumption, Asia (21 percent) and Europe (20 percent) account
for 80 percent of the world’s IRW consumption. It is important to note,
however, that since 1990 there has been a major reduction in the former USSR,
which effectively reduces world total roundwood consumption by about 12
percent, and thus distorts short-term growth rates.
3.4 Trends
During the past two decades,
a number of trends have become evident, each of which has either a direct or an
indirect impact upon the evolution of the distribution of global industrial
forestry. In aggregate, these trends
characterize a period of transition, as global forestry moves increasingly from
a total reliance on old-growth, natural forest stands to resources based on
both reforestation and afforestation in the form of high yield plantations.
3.4.1 Supply
- Societal attitudes. The
public perception of forests is changing from a tacit acceptance of
natural forests as single purpose, industrial resources to a perception of
forests with a multiplicity of values.
- Policy.
Responding to changing attitudes, policy changes are “profoundly affecting
timber supply today” (Apsey & Reed 1996). The overall impact is one of continuing pressure to lower
the extent and rate of harvest from natural forests. This is particulary evident in the
major conifer producing regions of Western USA and British Columbia.
- High value non-conifers. Increasing pressure on supply as over-cutting in
key producing regions of Indonesia and Malaysia flows through the system.
- Plantations. While native forests
still dominate global supply, plantation-grown wood is gaining in
importance and is estimated to account for 17% of total IRW supply (Hagler
1998).
- Non-traditional supply sources.
High-yielding, fast-growing plantations in the southern hemisphere
are becoming increasingly significant in the global IRW supply mix.
- “North-south” shift. The
emergence of industrial plantations in several South American countries,
Oceania and Indonesia is having an impact on global wood supply. Although IRW supply is still dominated
by northern industrialized countries with 90% of the total, there is a
discernable “north-south” shift.
Taking the aggregate of South America and Oceania as a proxy for
“the south”, the southern share of IRW production has increased from 4.3%
in 1961 to 11.2 % in 1997. Not
only is this a high rate of growth, in absolute terms the increase of 125
million m³ over this period is significant in that it represents 25% of
the increase in global production over the same period.
- Wood characteristics. With the
decreasing availability of old-growth forests as harvest volumes from
old-growth, natural forests are reduced, there is an accompanying
reduction in the diameter and quality of saw and veneer logs.
3.4.2
Consumption
·
Differential growth
rates -- regional. Although
industrialized countries dominate the consumption of IRW and wood-based
products, accounting for 71% in 1998, this share has steadily declined from a
level of 87% in 1961. This reflects the
higher population growth rates of developing countries, many of which have
significantly higher consumption growth rates, and the maturing of sawnwood
markets in industrialized countries.
World growth in IRW consumption averaged 1.1% annually between 1961 and
1998. However, during the same period,
consumption growth averaged 3.2% in developing countries and only 0.6% in
developed countries.
·
Differential growth
rates – log end-uses.
Since 1961, sawnwood consumption has grown at an average annual rate of
0.6%. During the same period, pulp and
paper consumption grew at a rate of 3.6% annually. For the ten years ending 1998, sawnwood consumption declined by
an average of 0.9% annually whereas pulp and paper grew at 2.6%. These product consumption rates are reflected
in the consumption rates for the basic roundwood log classifications (Table 2).
Pulpwood growth is
significantly lower than that of paper mainly due to the impact of recycled
paper.
Table
2. Global consumption rates –average
annual percentage growth
|
Period |
IRW |
Saw/veneer logs |
Pulpwood |
|
1961-1998 |
1.1 |
1.0 |
1.9 |
|
1961-1991 |
1.4 |
1.2 |
2.3 |
|
1988-1998 |
(0.9) |
(0.8) |
0.4 |
The
decade of the 1990s saw two major ‘discontinuities’ in the long-term trend
lines for wood consumption. The virtual
collapse of the resource economy of the former USSR region has been noted
previously. The latter part of the
decade included the severe economic downturn in Asia, which reduced demand for
all forest products and disrupted trade (FAO 1999). The combined effect of these two factors is reflected in the
negative growth rates recorded for the decade ended 1998, which in turn
dampened the long-term growth rates, as shown in Table 2.
Hagler
(1998) has estimated that manufacturing residuals from sawmills and plywood
mills account for 30% of the global usage of wood fiber for pulp and paper
manufacture. While greater use of
manufacturing residuals is anticipated (FAO 1999), the differential growth
rates between paper and sawnwood consumption rates is significant in that it
suggests a shift to the increased use of roundwood for pulping in the
long-term.
3.4.3
Technology
Historically,
technological developments have steadily lowered the unit consumption of wood,
with improvements in processing efficiency, product design, the use of manufacturing
residuals and recycling all having a significant impact on the volume of wood
consumed. Sedjo & Lyon (1990)
concluded that it was reasonable to assume, based on long-term trends, an
average annual rate of improved efficiency through technology of between 0.5%
and 1.2%. Binkley (1994), in noting
that the rate of technical improvement is difficult to measure, suggested that
the trend probably lies in the range of 1 to 2 %/yr for many wood products
manufacturing operations. Both sources
point out that technological improvements reduce the amount of IRW required to
produce a given volume of product. The
more significant developments in recent times include:
- Plantation forestry. Advanced
technologies are of increasing importance in plantation forestry. As Kanowski (1997) notes, biotechnology
applications in the production and propagation of interspecific hybrids is
of particular interest. The
optimal integration of biotechnologies with plantation forestry is
program-specific. Yield and
quality improvements have been significant in some instances, and the
potential for further improvements is promising.
- Engineered wood products and reconstituted wood
panels. The declining availability of large
diameter, old-growth trees has provided an incentive for industry to
develop products more suitable for smaller diameter and generally lower
quality roundwood. This has given
rise to “reconstituted wood” panels, most notably OSB and MDF, which use
small particles of wood mixed with resin.
Physical properties designed to meet specific end-uses are
“engineered” into the panel giving it superior performance
characteristics.
- Substitution. Technological
adaptations and improvements have enabled the substitution of non-conifer
species for conifers in the fiber furnish of many paper products. This has in turn enabled non-conifer
plantation wood to gain in significance as a pulping fiber.
- Wood products processing. Much
progress has been made in the ability to process smaller diameter logs for
both sawnwood and plywood. These
developments ease the transition from larger logs to smaller logs, which
is common in most supply regions.
In fact, the traditional “definitions” of log categories is
becoming increasingly blurred (Hagler 1997). The ability to process smaller diameter logs greatly
facilitates the transition to plantation wood.
- Recycled paper. While the recycling of
paper is a long-standing practice, the sharp increase in the past few
decades has been dramatic. In 1970, the global utilization rate was 18%;
by 1988 this had increased to 32% and the rate is currently in excess of
40%. This trend has had a major
impact on the volume of wood fiber required for paper manufacture.
- Pulping. There has been a steady evolution of
the basic pulping processes, resulting in reduced emissions and reduction
of unit consumption levels for wood fiber, energy and, in the case of
chemical pulp, water. These
developments ease the constraints on mill location (i.e. less water and
external energy required) giving the potential for capacity developments
in previously unworkable locations.
3.4.3
Industry structure
- The forest products industry globally is noted
for its high degree of fragmentation.
It is characterized by a large number of players, none of whom has
dominance either regionally or by product group. The degree of fragmentation varies by product group and by
region and is driven by processing technologies, scale economies and
access to wood supply and markets.
- Sawmilling is a major consumer of IRW in all
countries with a commercial forestry resource. Sawnwood manufacture at its most basic level is a simple
process and not capital intensive.
Consequently, it has traditionally been an “easy entry”
activity. This has led to a
proliferation of small mills and companies, particulary in the developing
world. For example, Argentina is
estimated to have about 3,000 sawmills with an average wood input of about
1,000m³ annually (CINTRAFOR).
Similar patterns are found throughout Latin America and Asia. These small mills, which tend to be
very inefficient users of IRW, are usually located near the forest
resources, and serve local markets.
By contrast, in industrialized countries sawmilling has evolved
into a sophisticated and highly efficient processing industry. Mill
outputs vary greatly, ranging from relatively small mills with wood
requirements in the order of 100,000m³ annually to mills consuming several
times this volume.
- There is a much greater degree of concentration
within the pulp and paper sector, which is capital intensive and
constrained in terms of flexibility with respect to scale by the nature of
the basic processes. Technical and
economic factors dictate that chemical pulping, the dominant process
globally, be sized to consume in the order of one to two million (or more)
m³ of wood fiber annually. These
criteria apply regardless of operating region. Thus, for example, Brazil and Indonesia have some of the
world’s largest pulp mills.
- There is a marked trend to corporate
concentration. In 1997, the top
100 companies processed 50% of the world’s IRW. However, within this grouping, the top 10 companies consumed 20% of the world total (WWF
1999). By contrast, in the late
1970s the leading 20 companies accounted for about 20%. This trend is driven by the need to
improve financial performance through scale economies and
rationalization. As a commodity
oriented business, forestry operations are increasingly seek to position
themselves as low-cost producers.
Since wood cost is a key factor in the manufacture of basic forest
products such as sawnwood and pulp (typically in the range of 40 to 60% of
operating costs), there is an increasing interest in identifying those
strategic directions that will result in relatively low wood costs.
OVERVIEW OF KEY PRODUCING
REGIONS
1.1
Introduction. In order to
develop an appreciation of the outlook for the supply/demand balance of IRW
globally, it is important to attempt to understand:
- The extent to which the main producing regions
can maintain and/or expand their output and,
- The extent to which those regions that appear to
have significant under-utilization of their industrial forests can
reasonably be expected to realize their apparent potential.
Each of the main producing
regions is reviewed briefly in the following paragraphs. It is emphasized that the scope of this
discussion is very large, and only a brief synopsis for each of the key regions
is given here.
1.2
North
America. The world’s most important wood supply region, with
more than one-third
of global output, is likely
to maintain its dominant position in the foreseeable future. However, the entire region is in the throes
of a major wood supply transition, precipitated by the combined effect of
harvest levels reaching – or exceeding – sustainable levels in the West, and of
increasingly intensive environmental and land-use pressures throughout the
region. While there is some limited
scope for the expansion of harvest levels from natural forests in some areas,
particularly of non-coniferous species, harvesting costs and environmental
pressures are constraining factors. On
balance, the outlook for the natural forest from the stand point of IRW is one
of a static or even declining production forest area.
The main potential for
significant expansion of the industrial forest lies in the development of fast
growing plantations in the southern United States region, which has been
described by Zobel (1984) as the “wood basket of the world”. The net annual increment for the southern US
has recently been estimated to be in the order of 270 million m³. Current harvest levels represent about 40%
of the North American total, and 15% of the world total. However, the ability to exploit the full
potential is problematic. Conifer
harvests exceed growth, private landowners are only partially interested in
growing timber of industrial use and environmental constraints are increasing
(Cubbage 1997). As Hanson (1999) has
noted, in the absence of improved forest management in the region, the harvest
level from the south is likely to be flat or even decline, and log quality will
deteriorate.
Canada’s IRW production
accounts for 30% of the North American total, or 10% of the total world
harvest. Unlike the US, the bulk of the
resource is still in old-growth stands.
In the west, two thirds of British Columbia’s forests are mature stands
of old-growth. During the past two
decades, the annual allowable cut has bee reduced from 90 million m³ to 72
million m³ with the likelihood of further decreases in the near future.
Compounding the difficulties
resulting from inadequate regeneration and a constrained output relative to the
limitations of sustainable growth, the Canadian industry, particularly in
British Columbia, is facing continuing pressure from environmental groups. These pressures have already resulted in
significant reductions in commercial forest concessions and are a manifestation
of the mounting debate with respect to the broader definitions of the economic
and social value of forests generally.
Overall, the prospect for
North America is one of increasing tightness in IRW supply, despite a
theoretical surplus of annual increment to production levels.
1.3
Europe. Although
forest growth presently exceeds removals, Europe, including
Eastern European and Nordic
countries, but excluding the former USSR, is the world’s second largest IRW
producing region. Of the total industrial output of 300 million m³, one third
is from the Nordic countries, 12% from Germany and 10% from France.
As a region, Europe is
presently in a surplus wood position, with annual growth outstripping
supply. However, although growth still
exceeds removals, the potential for continued expansion is limited and
exacerbated by the impact of air pollutants and a reduced emphasis on
production forests in favor of multiple-use forest management (IIASA
1991).
Apsey and Reed (1995)
concluded that the combined IRW production in Western and Eastern Europe would
increase at an effective annual rate of 0.6% to 2020.
On balance, while European
wood supply is presently in a surplus position, the expectation is that further
increases in available wood harvest will be relatively modest. The long-term outlook is one of increasing
pressure on the existing forest base in supplying the region’s industrial wood
requirements.
Former USSR
The forest resources of this
region are vast, accounting for 25% of the world’s exploitable closed forest
area and more than 55% of the growing stock of conifer species. Given the region’s large population, its large
surplus of conifers, and its geographic proximity to Europe and Japan – two of
the world’s major wood consuming regions – it is not surprising that it is
considered by many to be a key factor in the global supply/demand balance of
IRW.
The huge forest resource and
an estimated surplus more far in excess of present production levels do not
ensure a commensurate increase in production. The main body of the forest
resource is not well located relative to the principal consuming regions and
there are many technical, environmental and economic constraints to be overcome
before significant increases to present harvest levels could be realized. In actuality, that portion of the region’s
forest resource which is within reasonable access to the main population
centers has been over-cut, and extensive plantations have been developed to
help redress the resultant supply-demand imbalance.
The IIASA research team of Nilsson and Shvidenko (1998) state that Russian forestry has essentially followed a “mining” approach. The team notes “the quality of Russian forests was seriously impoverished between 1961 and 1993 with a decrease in the extent of valuable tree species, decreased tree sizes, and regional over-harvesting”.
Nilsson and Shvidenko
estimate the economic sustainable supply of IRW to be in the range of 160 to
290 million m³, based on a stable harvest over the long-term. They note, however, that a more rapid
liquidation of mature forests could add annual volumes in the order of 90
million m³ over the next 40 years. The
restructuring of the region’s forest industry will be difficult and costly, and
require foreign involvement.
Japan
Japan is a major factor in
the forest industry internationally, ranking in the top three countries in
terms of consumption of forest products, and is also one of the world’s leading
producers. Although nearly two-thirds
of the country’s land surface is forested, of which about 40% is in
plantations, Japan is not self-sufficient in IRW production. Although Japan’s resource base is sufficient
to support an increase in the country’s self-sufficiency level, this potential
will continue to be seriously constrained due to the high wood costs resulting
from fragmented ownership, scarce and costly labor, difficult terrain, and
mounting environmental and land-use pressures.
Japan provides a good example
of the gap which can exist between potential physical levels of IRW harvest and
those which are socially and economically viable. The country is likely to continue to be a major importer of fiber
in the foreseeable future.
China
and India
China’s IRW production is
currently about 110 million m³, or 40% of the Asian total and five times that
of Japan. Wood harvest levels have
increased significantly in recent years, having grown steadily from 35 million
m³in 1961-an annual growth rate about three times the global average for the
same period. This growth rate is
unsustainable, and there has been a leveling off during the 1990s. A growing timber shortage over the next
several decades is expected by CINTRAFOR (1999).
Plantations offer the only
opportunity China has to significantly increase its wood production over the
long-term. Even if current planning
targets were to be met, the fact that climatic conditions in most of the country
are unsuitable for fast-growing plantations means that there will be increasing
pressure on the existing supply base for several decades at least. Much will depend on the survival rates and
actual yields of the planting program.
With an annual IRW output in the order of only 25 million m³ (not much greater than New Zealand’s), India’s situation is one of extreme scarcity. As in the case of China, the country’s IRW production can only be improved through planting programs. Given that the combined population of India and China is about 40% of the world total, only massive planting programs could have any significant impact on the per ca